PZZ560-565-081645-
 PIGEON POINT TO POINT PINOS TO 10 NM-
 POINT PINOS TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM-
 305 AM PDT WED SEP 8 2010
 
 .TODAY...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. 
 NW SWELL 3 TO 5 FT AT 9 SECONDS.
 .TONIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 3 TO
 5 FT AT 9 SECONDS. 
 .THU...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. 
 NW SWELL 4 TO 6 FT AT 8 SECONDS. 
 .THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT. NW SWELL
 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
 .FRI...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 4 TO 6 FT.
 PATCHY FOG. 
 .SAT...NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. NW SWELL 3 TO 5 FT.
 PATCHY FOG. 
 .SUN...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS. NW SWELL
 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
 
 

 
 FXUS66 KMTR 081148
 AFDMTR
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
 430 AM PDT WED SEP 8 2010
 
 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE
 COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
 
 SHORT TERM...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST
 COAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER AXIS POISED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE BAY
 AREA TODAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
 BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM THE NORTH BAY AND THEN EASTWARD
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA. AT THE SAME TIME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS
 LINGER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE MARINE INVERSION HAS
 LIFTED BEYOND 4000 FEET AND IS MIXING OUT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT.
 THUS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MORE
 SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVERNIGHT
 WITH 0.02 AT SPRING VALLEY IN THE COASTAL HILLS ON THE PENINSULA
 ...0.08 AT LA HONDA AND 0.01-0.02 FOR SOME OF THE RAWS SITES UP IN
 THE HILLS OF THE EAST BAY. SALINAS AIRPORT REPORTED LIGHT RAIN
 BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN SHOWERS REPORTED ACROSS FAR
 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ARCATA AND CRESCENT CITY. HOWEVER MAIN
 WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON
 TEMPERATURES FOR THE INLAND SITES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
 MID 70S.
 
 THE MAIN TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY THIS EVENING WITH A
 DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY
 CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
 
 EXPECT MODEST WARMING ON THURSDAY BUT TEMPS STILL AVERAGING
 SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THEN
 CONTINUES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AIRMASS ALOFT SLOWLY
 WARMS IN A NEUTRAL PATTERN. BASICALLY THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
 PLEASANT AND MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY COASTAL
 CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT PLENTY
 OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS AND MILD AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.
 
 EXTENDED...HAVE TO MENTION THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST EVEN THOUGH WERE
 BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FORECASTING WITH TOO MUCH SKILL. THE GFS AND
 ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT STRONGLY AT A POSSIBLE TROUGH PASSAGE
 AROUND SEPT 17TH. TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
 SOLUTIONS AND THERE IS PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT. IF ONE TRACES THE
 EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BACK IN TIME...THERE IS CURRENTLY A DEEP
 TROUGH JUST NORTH OF JAPAN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
 CHINA. MORE IMPORTANTLY TROPICAL STORM 11 WEST (YESTERDAY I
 MISTAKENLY IDENTIFIED 10W) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 310 NM EAST OF HONG
 KONG. IT APPEARS ITS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM THAT GET ENTRAINED
 INTO THE WESTERLY JET AND BRING IT ACROSS THE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT
 10 DAYS. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS ON SEPT 18 1959 THE CITY
 RECEIVED 2.01 INCHES WITH 2.82 INCHES FOR SANTA ROSA AND OVER 3
 INCHES AT MONTEREY. NCEP RE-ANALYSIS PAGE...NOT SURPRISINGLY SHOWS A
 SIMILAR 500 MB PATTERN BACK THEN WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES.
 JUST FOOD FOR THOUGHT AND SOMETHING WE`LL MONITOR.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WELL
 INTO THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA LAST NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
 LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST. COOL UNSTABLE AIR AT THE LOWER
 LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SLOW CLEARING OF THE STRATUS. FT ORD PROFILER
 SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SO RAPIDLY IT HAS MIXED OUT SO
 CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DURING THE MORNING.
 
 .VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID
 MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER 16-17Z. CIGS
 BREAKING UP AFTER 21Z BUT MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP BRIEF
 MVFR CIGS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
 
 .KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID
 MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER 16-17Z. CIGS
 WILL CLEAR OUT FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 19Z...REACHING SFO BY 21Z.
 
 .MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LAST MOST OF THE DAY.
 BRIEF PERIODS OF SCT CLOUDS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
 
 
 &&
 
 .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TDA...SCA...SF BAY
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
 AVIATION/MARINE: W PI